Susan Joslyn, Ph.D.
Interests: Decision making and communicating uncertainty information
|Psych 462 Human Memory|
|Psych 521: Core Concepts in Decision Making|
|Psych 527: Core Concepts in the Cognitive Approach to Human Memory|
|Do I accept and train new psychology graduate students in general?|
|Am I accepting new graduate students in the upcoming year?|
|I am NOT accepting graduate students in 2020-2021|
|Cognition and Perception|
|I am actively seeking students with background in cognitive psychology or an interest in applied decision-making research.|
My main research program concerns decision-making in real world situations. Current work focuses on decisions for which the outcome is uncertain, such as those based on weather forecasts. One of our main research questions is whether people can understand numeric uncertainty estimates. An example is a forecast for 30% chance of winds greater than 20 mph. We have shown that people can understand this and several other kinds of uncertainty information, when it is carefully presented. Moreover such information improves decisions compared to decisions based on conventional deterministic forecasts. We are currently exploring the limits of these effects as well as uncertainty visualizations.
We are also exploring the implications of this work for other domains in which decisions are made under uncertainty (e.g. medical treatment).
- Grounds, M. Joslyn, S. & LeClerc, J. (2018) Expressing Flood Likelihood: Return Period versus Probability, Weather Climate and Society 10 (1) doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0107.1
- Grounds, M. Joslyn, S. & Otsuka (2017) Probabilistic Interval Forecasts: An Individual Differences Approach to Understanding Forecast Communication, Advances in Meteorology, Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 3932565, 18 pages
- Grounds, M. Joslyn, S. (2018) Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty: Do Individual Differences Matter? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 24(1), pp.18-33
- Joslyn, S. & Grounds, M. (2015). The Use of Uncertainty Forecasts in Complex Decision Tasks and Various Weather Conditions,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied Vol 21(4), Dec, 2015. pp. 407-417.
- Joslyn, S. & Jones, D. (2008) Strategies in Naturalistic Decision-making: A Cognitive Task Analysis of Naval Weather Forecasting.In J.M. Schraagen (Ed) In J.M. Schraagen, S. (Ed) Naturalistic Decision Making and Macrocognition. Ashgate Publishing 183-201
- Joslyn, S. & Savelli, S. (2010). Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty. Meteorological Applications. 17, 180-195
- Joslyn, S. L., Carlin, L. & Loftus E. F. (1998). Remembering and forgetting childhood sexual abuse, Memory 5, 701-724.
- Joslyn, S. L., Hunt, E. (1998). Evaluating individual differences in response to emergency situations. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 4, 16-43.
- Joslyn, S. L., I Oakes, M. A. (2005) Directed Forgetting and Autobiographical Events Memory and Cognition 33(4), 577-587.
- Joslyn, S. L., Loftus, E. F., McNoughton, A. & Powers, J. (2001). Memory for Memory. Memory & Cognition 29 . 789-797.
- Joslyn, S., & LeClerc, J. (2011). Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 18(1):126-40.
- Joslyn, S., & LeClerc, J. (2013). Decisions with Uncertainty: The Glass Half Full. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 22 (4) 308
- Joslyn, S., & LeClerc, J. (2016). Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication. Topics in Cognitive Science, 8(1), 222-241.
- Joslyn, S., & Savelli, S., & Nadav-Greenberg, L., (2011). Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: Anchoring effects. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 17(4):342-53.
- Joslyn, S., Nadav-Greenberg, L. & Nichols, R. M. (2009). Probability of precipitation: Assessment and enhancement of end-user understanding. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(2)
- Joslyn, S., Nadav-Greenberg, L., & Taing, M. U. (2008). The Effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 23 (1), 55-72.
- Joslyn, S., Nemec, L. & Savelli, S. (2013). The benefits and challenges of predictive interval forecasts and verification graphics for end-users. Weather, Climate & Society. e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00007.1
- Joslyn, S., Pak, K., Jones, D. Pyles, J. & Hunt, E., (2007) The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts. Weather & Forecasting 22 (4) 804_812
- Joslyn, S.L. & Nichols, R.M. (2009). Probability or frequency? Expressing forecast uncertainty in public weather forecasts. Meteorological Applications, 90, 185-19.
- LeClerc, J. & Joslyn, S., (2012). Odds ratio forecasts increase precautionary action in severe weather events. Weather, Climate & Society. Weather, Climate & Society, 4, 263–270.
- LeClerc, J. & Joslyn, S., (2015). The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making. Risk Analysis. 35 (3) 385-395. DOI: 10.1111/risa.12336
- Losee, J & Joslyn, S (2018) The need to trust: How features of the forecasted weather influence forecast trust. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reductionhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.032
- Nadav-Greenberg, L., & Joslyn, S. (2009). Uncertainty forecasts improve decision-making among non-experts, Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 2 (1), 24-47.
- Nadav-Greenberg, L., Joslyn, S., & Taing, M. U., (2008) The effect of weather forecast uncertainty visualization on decision-making. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making.2 (1)24-47
- Savelli, S. & Joslyn, S., (2012). Boater safety: Communicating weather forecast information to high stakes end users. Weather, Climate & Society. 4, 7–19
- Savelli, S. & Joslyn, S., (2013). The Advantages of 80% Predictive Interval Forecasts for Non-Experts and the Impact of Visualizations. Applied Cognitive Psychology. . wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/acp.2932
In the News
- 09/19/2018 Susan Joslyn’s co-authored paper titled "The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making” was cited in this article from The Advocate about storm alert false alarms
- 12/08/2017 Sheri Mizumori and Susan Joslyn were interviewed by the UW Daily about memory and preparing for finals.
- 04/05/2017 Susan Joslyn’s research, on the public’s trust of weather forecasting, has been instrumental in how Seattle news centers convey the intensity of storms.
- 11/16/2016 NSF and NOAA have awarded funds to three scientists including Susan Joslyn.
- 04/27/2016 Congratulations to Susan Joslyn, who just received a new 3 year NSF award for her work titled DRMS: Improving Public Response to Weather Warnings.
- 02/11/2015 Susan Joslyn talks with Jerry Large about Decision Making. She also uses one of my favorite things ever – the pro/con list.
- 02/04/2015 When it rains, it pours – or does it? See what Susan Joslyn has to say.
- 01/28/2015 Given the weather on the East Coast, Susan Joslyn’s new paper couldn’t be more timely.
- 06/30/2009 Susan Joslyn’s work was in USA Today and was the cover story on the UW website.
- 06/24/2009 Susan Joslyn was featured in USA Today and the UW front page "For many, meaning of rain forecast is cloudy at best"
- 04/20/2009 Susan Joslyn’s work on what people think weather predictions mean was highlighted on the UW’s web page and featured in the recent University Week. “People's misperceptions cloud their understanding of rainy weather forecasts,”
- 10/15/2007 "Effect of Probabilistic information on threshold forecasts"
- 10/02/2007 Susan Joslyn, Karla Pak, Earl Hunt, David Jones (UW APLD), and John Pyles (UC-Irvine) had their paper “Effect of Probabilistic information on threshold forecasts” published in Weather and Forecasting.
- 04/07/1998 New test identifies people who can handle high-pressure jobs requiring rapid decision making, large amounts of information